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Oil prices rose more than 4%

Houthis Vow to Respond After US، UK Launch Air Strikes in Yemen

الجمعة، 12 يناير 2024 06:57 م

The US and UK launched about 70 airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen in an effort to stop shipping attacks in the Red Sea، though the Iran-backed group pledged to retaliate with an urgent response.

Addressing tens of thousands of supporters Friday at a rally in the Yemeni capital of Sanaa، Mohammed Ali Al-Houthi، a senior leader، said a counter move would be “imminent.” The Houthis’ campaign against commercial vessels will be expanded and all US and UK interests are now legitimate targets alongside those linked to Israel، the group said earlier.

Oil prices rise

Oil prices rose more than 4% at the prospect of a widening Middle East conflict، with Brent climbing above $80 a barrel for the first time since late December. It traded at $79.92 as of 3 p.m. in London، about a two-week high.

The military action underscores the deepening fallout across the Middle East from the Israel-Hamas war، which shows no sign of ending after entering a fourth month. The Houthis started attacking ships in mid-November، ostensibly in support of Hamas، which is also backed by Iran، and have said they won’t back down until Israel stops fighting in Gaza.

The US and its allies have worked to prevent any escalation، with Antony Blinken، President Joe Biden’s top diplomat، conducting the latest in a string of tours of the region to ease tensions. That’s not been enough to persuade the Houthis to end the assaults، which have roiled global supply chains and pushed up freight costs.

Despite the escalating aggression، the strikes on Yemen will probably have a limited impact on the global economy، according to Ziad Daoud، chief emerging markets economist at Bloomberg Economics. The attacks are unlikely to draw Iran into the conflict directly، and shipping costs remain below their 2021 peak، he wrote in a note.

Huge explosions

The strikes started about 2:30 a.m. Yemen time، with residents in Sanaa and Red Sea port city of Hodeida reporting huge explosions. Other Houthi-held towns were hit including Saada، Taiz and Hajjah، the group said.

The Houthis said there were 73 strikes in total and that five fighters were killed. It’s unclear if any there were civilian casualties. The US military said 16 sites were hit including airports، radar installations and storage and launch sites for drones and missiles.

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said initial indications were that the strikes were successful in degrading the Houthis’ ability to attack shipping. “Our aim is very clear: it’s to de-escalate tensions and to restore stability to the region،” Sunak told broadcasters Friday، adding that the Houthis are “disrupting the global economy.”

More Strikes?

The US attacked with jets on the USS Eisenhower aircraft carrier، as well as with Tomahawk missiles launched from a submarine and other ships. The UK sent planes from a base in Cyprus.

The Netherlands، Australia، Canada and Bahrain provided support as part of the mission، though they didn’t fire missiles.

Biden didn’t rule out more strikes. He said the move was a “clear message that the United States and our partners will not tolerate attacks on our personnel or allow hostile actors to imperil freedom of navigation in one of the world’s most critical commercial routes.”

On Tuesday، the Houthis launched their largest missile and drone attack to date in the Red Sea، prompting the US and UK forces to shoot down 18 drones and three anti-ship missiles. The group earlier hijacked a car carrier، tried to capture others and attacked dozens with missiles and drones.

Rerouting ships

Many companies have rerouted their ships away from the Red Sea — which links to the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal — forcing their vessels on much longer routes around southern Africa. Volvo Car AB said Friday it will suspend production at its Belgian plant due to supply-chain disruptions، while Tesla Inc. shares dropped after warning of the impact on its sole European factory.

“It’s likely that this won’t end here،” said Jane Kinninmont، a senior research fellow at UK think tank Chatham House. “But there will be a limit on how directly the US and UK want to get involved. They will not want to be sending any troops into Yemen. What they will be doing is pressing Saudi Arabia، Egypt، Qatar and other Arab countries to join them in reining in the Houthis.”

Saudi Arabia said it was following the latest events with “great concern،” highlighting how some of the US’s regional allies are uneasy about the strikes.

A peace deal

The kingdom borders Yemen and has been trying to forge a peace deal with the Houthis after failing to dislodge them from power for most of the past decade. The Houthis have attacked Saudi territory in the past، including in 2019 when they claimed a hit that briefly knocked out half the kingdom’s oil production.

Russia and Iran، which provides funding and training to the Houthis، both said they strongly condemned the airstrikes.

“Iran has a strategy of supporting other groups to further its aims so that it can stay out of the way to some extent itself،” said Kinninmont. “It will be pleased to see the Houthis are taking action and it won’t suffer any direct costs from the airstrikes either. So، Iran probably sees this as a win-win.”

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan — a staunch critic of Israeli actions in Gaza — said the US and UK actions were “disproportionate” and could turn the Red Sea into a “sea of blood.”

Iranian Proxies

The strikes embroil the US in yet another fight with an Iranian proxy since the Israel-Hamas war erupted on Oct. 7. American forces have launched attacks in Syria and Iraq in recent weeks against Iranian-supported militias that have targeted American bases — so far without major casualties.

Washington also sent aircraft carriers and other ships to the region in support of Israel and to warn Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group against a full-on attack of the Jewish state.

Hezbollah and Israel have traded fire almost daily since Oct. 7 across the Israeli-Lebanese border. While those haven’t escalated، there are growing calls within Israel for the government to act more aggressively against the group.

The fighting in Gaza، meanwhile، continues to rage and Israeli officials say it could go on for months، if not longer. More than 23،000 people have been killed there، according to health officials in the Hamas-run Palestinian territory.

Hamas، designated a terrorist group by the US and European Union، killed 1،200 people during its October incursion into Israel.

Deterring the Houthis won’t be easy. The group، which took control of Sanaa in 2014 at the start of Yemen’s civil war، holds much of the north-west of the country. It withstood a massive bombing campaign from a Saudi-led coalition that began a year later، and remains firmly entrenched.

The US revoked its designation of the Houthis as a terrorist group in 2021 out of concern the label would harm Yemenis’ access to aid، with the conflict having devastated the country.