US Oil Production Set to Rise to Record as Costs Decline، Macquarie Says

US oil production is set to end the year at a record pace of about 14 million barrels a day as falling costs and improved drilling efficiency overshadow subdued growth plans from publicly listed companies، Macquarie Group Ltd. analysts said in a note.

Increased US shale production

Macquarie stood out among analysts last year with its projection of increased US shale production and ultimately was proved correct. Its latest forecast comes as shale-oil explorers are vowing to rein in production growth for a fourth straight year and consolidation in the industry presents headwinds to further growth. The US government expects production to edge up to 13.2 million barrels a day this year.

Macquarie models US production exiting 2025 at about 14.5 million barrels a day، despite expectations for significantly lower crude prices. 

“This year’s headwinds could flip to tailwinds in a scenario where the growth impulse from private companies recharges and public companies attack high-graded resource bases next year،” analysts led by Walt Chancellor said in the note.