Thai EV Sales to Miss Target as Banks Curb Loans on Debt Risk

Thailand’s electric vehicle sales are set to miss target this year as lenders turn more cautious in sanctioning new auto loans with the nation’s household debt hovering near a record، according to an industry group.

New battery-powered passenger EV registrations are seen at 80،000 units this year، said Suraj Sangsnit، president of the Electric Vehicle Association of Thailand. That’s below the 150،000 units forecast by the group earlier this year. The tally is still about 5% more than over 76،000 units sold in 2023.

The cut in sales forecast is bad news for Chinese makers like BYD Co. and Great Wall Motor Co.، which have just started producing locally-made cars this year after investing in factories to capitalize on Thai government incentives to drive adoption of new-energy vehicles. Globally too، EV sales growth has slowed as demand cooled and countries scaled back subsidies. Earlier this week، Volvo Car AB abandoned a target to sell only fully electric vehicles by the end of this decade، joining several peers in dialing back their expectations.

Production forecasts

Thailand’s auto industry group has cut its full-year production forecast of all vehicles to 1.7 million units this year from 1.9 million units predicted earlier، citing a “worrisome” 50% refusal rate for auto loans. Domestic automobile sales have fallen 24% in the first seven months of the year، according to data from the Federation of Thai Industries. Sales of EVs have so far buckled the trend to post a 13% growth during the same period.

Thailand has slashed import and excise taxes and given cash subsidies to buyers in exchange for automakers’ commitment to start local production — all part of a renewed push to uphold its long-time standing as a regional auto hub. That saw sales soar sevenfold in 2023.

Chronic economic issues

The slowdown this year has less to do with demand but more with Thailand’s chronic economic issues such as a tepid growth rate and high levels of household debt. That’s led to an uptick in non-performing loans among vehicle buyers، prompting commercial banks and other private finance companies to tighten lending rules.

“It’s not that demand is declining، but when you can’t get loans approved، then it’s game over،” said Krisda Utamote، honorary adviser at the EV association. “Our economic situation isn’t looking good. EV sales are at least still up this year، while it’s all decline for the other types of vehicles.”

The outlook remains bleak with the Bank of Thailand predicting further increase in non-performing loans as small businesses and individual borrowers struggle to repay debt.

“Who will the EV makers who have set up factories here sell their cars to if sales continue to be like this?” association president Suraj told reporters. “We want to prioritize a discussion with the government on tackling household debt، which is the main reason why auto sales are falling.”