Global bonds sell off as investors react to Trump’s tariffs and a German ‘paradigm shift’

Government borrowing costs rose across the globe on Thursday, with German bonds resuming the sell-off that sparked the biggest daily jump in yields since the country’s reunification 35 years ago.

Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, meaning that yields tick higher when the value of the asset declines.

Yields on German government bonds — known as bunds — skyrocketed on Wednesday, with the yield on the 10-year debt instruments adding around 30 basis points. The sell-off came after lawmakers from parties widely expected to form Germany’s next coalition government agreed to plans to reform historic debt policy rules to allow an increase in national defense spending.  

German government borrowing costs continued to rise on Thursday across the board. The yield on the 10-year bund, seen as a benchmark for the wider euro zone, was 7 basis points higher at 12:28 p.m. London time, paring earlier highs. The yields on 5- and 20-year bunds were up by 4 basis points and 6 basis points, respectively. Simultaneously, the DAX index — home to Germany’s biggest companies — touched on a record high.

Deutsche Bank Research Strategist Jim Reid said in a note to clients on Thursday morning that Germany’s political gear shift had helped fuel a greater appetite for riskier assets in Europe.

“In terms of reactions, the rise in the 10-year bund yield was the biggest daily jump since German reunification in 1990,” he said, noting that the euro and Germany’s DAX index had jumped in the wake of the news. “There’s no doubt that markets are pricing in a once-in-a-generation policy regime shift, which has brought about a huge risk-on move for European assets.”

“In terms of the drivers behind the sell-off, anticipation of a fiscal boost to demand was front and center as evidenced both by the outperformance of German stocks and the rise in inflation expectations,” analysts at RaboBank said in a note out on Thursday morning, pointing to 10-year euro zone inflation swaps jumping by 14 basis points in the wake of political news out of Germany.

Dampened appetite to lend to governments was seen across Europe on Thursday, with yields edging higher on bonds across the region.

The upward move in European borrowing costs also come ahead of the latest monetary policy update from the European Central Bank. Markets are anticipating a quarter-point rate cut when the central bank announces its decision later on Thursday, which would bring the euro zone’s core interest rate down to 2.5%.

Italian 10-year bond yields jumped 8 basis points by 12:29 p.m. in London, while French 10-year bond yields were up 7 basis points, and Swiss 10-year yields jumped by around 5 basis points during early afternoon trade.