COP28، biggest climate talks ever confront global chaos and record heat

Sultan Al Jaber، the COP28 president and CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.، hosts biggest climate talks ever، that will be held in Dubai from November 30 to December 12، with more than 70 thoysand politicians، diplomats، campaigners، financiers and business leaders will fly to Dubai to talk about arresting the world’s slide toward environmental catastrophe، global chaos and record heat.

COP28 is the biggest climate talks ever

Sultan Al Jaber، the COP28 president stated that the biggest climate talks ever confront global chaos and record heat as the need for progress has never been more urgent: 2023 will almost certainly be the hottest year on record، greenhouse gas emissions are still rising، and promises to cut pollution remain insufficient to take the risk of unmanageable warming off the table.

Sultan Al Jaber، the COP28 president indicated that the world confront at the same time، rapid inflation and global instability، including wars in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip، that have scrambled the politics and economics of the energy transition.

The responsibility for making a breakthrough lies with COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber

The responsibility for making a breakthrough lies with COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber، as many in the climate community believe that his leadership of the talks is tarnished by his role as chief executive officer of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.، one of the world’s largest oil producers، and a report this week alleged he was prepared to use his COP role to promote Adnoc’s interests.

Bloomberg agency news reported that Sultan Al Jaber، the COP28 president has publicly said he saw this COP as an opportunity to co-opt the fossil fuel industry into tackling emissions as one of the star announcements is expected to be a pledge by the global oil and gas sector to eliminate emissions of methane، a potent greenhouse gas، by 2030.

Progress can be made in the United Arab Emirates COP28 this December

While the deal won’t have legal force، Sultan Al Jaber، the COP28 president for this year’s summit، sees that it’s one of several signs that progress can be made in the United Arab Emirates this December with at least 150 countries and 25 national and international oil companies have signed the pledge.

Adnan Amin، chief executive of COP28 with Sultan Al Jaber، the COP28 president، said that his aim is to get 50% of methane emissions covered by the commitment as great global companies are very، very significant companies and countries and if we are able to really attack the methane issue here، that gives us substantial emission reductions of probably the most dangerous greenhouse gas.

The improved diplomatic mood between the U.S. and China

Sultan Al Jaber، the COP28 president for this year’s summit affirmed that perhaps the most positive development so far has been the improved diplomatic mood between the U.S. and China، as the world's top two polluters agreed earlier this month to publish more expansive emissions-cutting pledges and back a target to triple renewable energy، while that goal now appears likely to make it into the final COP document.

Sultan Al Jaber، the COP28 president and CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.، revealed that it's a renewal of climate collaboration between the geopolitical rivals that bodes well for the summit، and past agreements between Washington and Beijing in 2014 and 2021 helped pave the way for landmark texts at earlier COPs.

Potential commitment to phase out fossil fuels

Sultan Al Jaber، the COP28 president explained that other key areas for the talks، beyond a deal on methane and expanding renewables، are a potential commitment to phase out fossil fuels، progress on securing more climate cash for the developing world and the first formal stocktake of the world’s progress fighting climate change since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015.

The China-U.S. statement does not explicitly call for the phase-out of all fossil fuels، a key demand of a group of European nations and Pacific island states known as the High Ambition Coalition and a similar push to embed that language in the agreement at COP27 in Egypt's Sharm El-Sheikh failed last year but it's likely to become a battleground in Dubai، Sultan Al Jaber، the COP28 president، added.

Targeting the phase-out of all fossil fuels is unrealistic

China's climate envoy Xie Zhenhua said in September that targeting the phase-out of all fossil fuels is "unrealistic "، meanwhile، a growing chorus of voices led by developing nations are calling for a broader energy package that ties the goal to funding، in addition diplomats are trying to find wording that's less polarizing، and that sends the right signal، according to a senior official at the U.S. State Department.

A final deal on fossil fuels could ultimately be caveated by words calling for an "orderly،” "just” or "responsible” transition and the use of carbon capture and storage technologies، while over the last two COPs it's been hard to move the needle on the consensus، and Sultan Al Jaber، the COP28 president confirmed that he is very open and very supportive to finding new solutions on the language that advance the cause، that advance the ambition on fossil fuels and the responsible phase down on fossil fuels.

Climate finance

Money will be central to the debate in Dubai as wealthy nations likely met their long-overdue goal of mobilizing $100 billion annually to help poor countries tackle the worst impacts of climate change and pay for clean energy، but that figure is just a drop in the ocean، as developing countries will need $2.4 trillion per year by 2030 from a combination of governments and the private sector، according to the latest estimates.

Climate activists dressed as CEOs of major oil companies take part in a fake banquet celebrating profits، part of a call on states taking part in COP28 to finance a loss and damage fund by taxing fossil fuel profits but the failure of developed countries to deliver the promised $100 billion has been a point of tension for a long time and to rebuild trust، it will be important for this year’s summit to actually see developed countries participate in that process and transparently report on the delivery of that promise.

UAE government is expected to announce a $25 billion fund to spur clean energy investments

In the first days of the summit، the UAE government is expected to announce a $25 billion fund to spur clean energy investments and there will be a portion of below market rate concessional finance to help developing countries boost investments in climate action، however، the details are yet to be agreed، according to people familiar with the matter.

Just weeks before the summit، climate negotiators agreed on a framework for the operation of a fund meant to help vulnerable nations deal with the loss and damage they are experiencing as a result of increasingly turbulent weather and the fund is on track to start disbursing money at the start of next year and progress in setting up that fund goes a long way in helping build the necessary momentum which will need to deliver a successful outcome in Dubai.

COP28 to evaluate the progress in meeting the target to hold warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius

Under the Paris Agreement signed in 2015، countries need to hold an official stocktake this year to evaluate the progress in meeting their target to hold warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels. They also need to set rules for the next round of emissions pledges they have to submit in 2025.

Scientific consensus states that global greenhouse gas emissions should halve by 2030 and reach net zero by midcentury. Coal، oil and gas production should be cut from 80% of the global energy supply today to just 20% by 2050، according to the International Energy Agency's net zero roadmap.

The 1.5 C goal will be incredibly difficult to achieve

If global emissions don’t be halved in these six years، the 1.5 C goal will be incredibly difficult to achieve and the requirements on the loss and damage fund will be extraordinary and there's so much at stake as the U.N. estimates global temperatures will rise as much as 2.8 C by the end of this century، meaning that overshoot of the 1.5 C goal is inevitable under current commitments to cut emissions، while the stocktake is an incredibly technical exercise، what comes out of it will determine the course of global climate policy for the rest of the decade.

If Sultan Al Jaber، the COP28 president secures deals on methane، renewables and language on fossil fuels، Dubai will likely be considered a successful COP and validate his view that the coalition fighting climate change should be as broad as possible but as COPs grow and grow، attracting thousands of people with little or no involvement in the diplomatic process، others argue they risk becoming a bloated embarrassment.