Tariffs could see U.S. GDP take a 10% hit in the second quarter, Carl Weinberg says

U.S. tariff policies announced Wednesday would see U.S. gross domestic product take a 10% hit in the second quarter of 2025, High Frequency Economics Chief Economist Carl Weinberg said in a note Thursday, potentially pushing the world’s largest economy into a recession after a predicted small contraction in the first quarter.

Weinberg estimated that tariffs would take $741 billion out of U.S. household real incomes or corporate profits, or more if fully accounting for all tariffs on aluminum, steel and non-exempt trade with Canada and Mexico. His calculation of an average tariff rate on two-dozen countries of at least 30% is greater than expected, he said.

The U.S. economy will also be hit by price rises, Weinberg added, with the rate of an imported item such as softwood lumber higher by up to 25% — even if some of the inflationary impact is cushioned by downward pressure on the economy.

Greece hopes tariffs era ends quickly

Greek Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis said fresh U.S. tariffs represent a historic shift toward protectionism and a deviation from how the European Union sees economic and social progress.

“As a country, we are in favour of free trade,” he said in a statement, reported by Reuters Thursday. “We hope that this chapter will last as little as possible.”

South Africa seeks new trade agreement with U.S.

South Africa seeks to negotiate a new “bilateral and mutually beneficial trade agreement” after being struck with 30% tariffs by the U.S. administration under Donald Trump’s extensive levy campaign announced on Wednesday.

“The tariffs affirm the urgency to negotiate a new bilateral and mutually beneficial trade agreement with the U.S., as an essential step to secure long-term trade certainty,” South Africa’s presidency noted on Thursday, expressing “concern” over the newly imposed duties.

The African country has previously expressed willingness to meet with Washington to discuss the U.S. administration’s separate 25% tariffs on automobile imports. South African vehicle exports to the U.S. top $2 billion, according to Reuters.