AFS: slow production of green battery reduces General Motors's electric cars bymid-decade

American AutoForecast Solutions، AFS، Pennsylvania-based company، a widely consulted industry research and analytics firm، expected that a slow ramp-up of General Motors، three U.S. green battery plants in Ohio، Tennessee and Michigan states، could reduce actual electric cars، EVs، production of the american company from 1 million to less than 600 thousand in North America at mid-decade althou GM has not yet issued specific North American green cars production targets for 2024 and 2025.

General Motors has enough green battery raw materials

Sam Fiorani، head of global vehicle forecasting at Pennsylvania-based AutoForecast Solutions (AFS)، a widely consulted industry research and analytics firm، affirmed that General Motors، the largest American car company، had lined up enough green battery raw materials، including lithium، nickel، cobalt and cathode active material، to reach its goal of producing 1 million electric cars، EVs، annually in North America by 2025.

U.S. News & World Report Magazine reported that General Motors will have the capacity to build 1 million electric vehicles، EVs، in North America by 2025، but a slow production of its three U.S. green battery plants could restrict its green cars production at mid-decade.

General Motors: enough green battery raw materials to reach million green cars

General Motors confirmed in July 2022، that it had enough green battery raw materials to reach its goal of producing 1 million green cars EVs annually in North America starting from 2025 but it found out that building more than half a million EVs in North America in 2025 will be difficult، based on its planned green battery production at its three plants in Ohio، Tennessee and Michigan.

General Motors spokesman Jim Cain reveaked that the company has not changed its targets which include cumulative green cars، EV، production of 400 thousand units from early 2022 through mid-2024، a revised goal that CEO Mary Barra announced earlier this year as GM’s targets are hittable despite difficulties to achieve them.

Three U.S. green battery plants will have 135 gigawatt-hours

Three U.S. green battery plants in Ohio، Tennessee and Michigan states will have a combined annual capacity of at least 135 gigawatt-hours (GWh)، which are enough to supply at least 1.35 million green cars، EVs a year but with the faulterd startup schedules and slow production، AFS forecasts the three battery plants will be able to produce just 58 GWh worth of cells، or enough to supply about half a million vehicles.

It is also projected that slow production of green battery capacity make higher green cars production targets difficult to reach and GM’s EV، electric vehicles، volumes could also be reduced by the company’s ability to secure sufficient raw materials for green batteries.

General Motors North American green cars beyond 2025

General Motors North American green cars، EV، production targets beyond 2025 will continue to push the limits of its green battery plants، including a recently announced fourth factory with new partner Samsung SDI that isn’t expected to open until 2026.

Despite General Motors’s ambitious projections for EV production in the latter half of the decade، “accessing the components and materials necessary for that growth will become increasingly difficult، however، GM’s global battery materials supply chain is extensive with more investments، partnerships and offtake agreements with more than 20 companies، including such heavy hitters as Glencore، Livent، Posco Chemical، LG Chem and Lithium Americas.

General Motors’s agreements won’t result in a flow of materials

Some of those agreements won’t result in a flow of materials until after 2025، but even then supplies could run into snags as global automakers accelerate their investments in and production plans for future green cars، EVs، in major markets and AFS now expects GM to build around 76 thousand electric cars this year in North America and 328 thousand unit in 2024.

Those agreements include General Motors’s Ultium Cells joint venture with Korea’s LGES Energy Solution which has opened its first plant in Warren، Ohio، with a second plant in Spring Hill، Tennessee، expected to begin production in early 2024 and a third green battery facility in Lansing، Michigan، to open in early 2025 as most of GM's newest EVs in North America are designed to use Ultium battery packs developed jointly with LGES and produced at one of the three U.S. plants to produce green battery enough for green cars by mid decade.