UK House Prices Post First Growth in Two Years, RICS Says

A closely watched gauge of UK house prices has turned positive for the first time in almost two years amid hopes that the Bank of England will further ease borrowing costs.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said its headline index rose to 11 in September from zero the previous month as agents across all regions reported higher prices and anticipated further gains. Buyer demand climbed for a third consecutive month, while sales also picked up.

Buying a home is becoming more affordable thanks to the BOE’s first interest-rate cut since the pandemic and growing real incomes. In an interview published last week, Governor Andrew Bailey raised the prospect of more reductions to come if inflation stays put at the 2% target.

A separate BOE survey showed banks questioned in early September expected demand for mortgages to pick up strongly, as buyers benefit from the declines in borrowing costs. It was the most optimistic lenders have been on future demand since the start of 2023. House prices were expected to increase modestly.

Supply of home loans rose 

Its credit conditions survey released Thursday also found that The supply of home loans rose in the three months through August, though it was not expected to improve further in period through November. Default rates on home loans were predicted to rise again, as the impact of previous interest-rate hikes squeezes household finances.

The latest figures from RICS add to evidence of a strengthening housing market, with recent surveys from Nationwide Building Society, Halifax and Rightmove all showing prices rising. RICS’s index, which shows the difference between agents reporting higher prices and those saying prices fell, was last positive in October 2022.

“The latest survey results once again convey a brighter picture for housing market activity, with the recent easing in mortgage interest rates continuing to support a recovery in buyer demand,” said Tarrant Parsons, head of market analytics at RICS. “Critical for the outlook, a further unwinding in monetary policy is anticipated over the months ahead, which should create a more favorable backdrop for the market moving forward.”

Raising capital gains

Speculation that the new Labour government will raise capital gains tax in the Oct. 30 budget is also spurring some homeowners to list their properties, the report said. While that benefits prospective buyers, it’s bad news for tenants as the supply of homes to rent is already in short supply.

The survey showed imbalances in the letting market worsened in September, with agents reporting both a continuing decline in rental properties as well as increasing demand. As a result, rent prices are expected to increase over the next quarter.

“While the Renter’s Rights Bill aims to improve standards and offer better protections for tenants, we must ensure that these reforms do not discourage responsible landlords from remaining in the market,” said RICS President Tina Paillet. “Most importantly, the planned changes in the private rental sector fall short of tackling the core issue: increasing supply and making housing more affordable for tenants.”