Dubai Property Giant Emaar’s Shares Climb to 2008 High

Emaar Properties PJSC, the largest listed real estate firm in the United Arab Emirates, rose to the highest level in nearly 17 years as it extends a rally after boosting dividend payouts.

Its shares rallied by the maximum allowed 15% for a second day. The company — which built the Burj Khalifa skyscraper — on Friday said it will set up a long-term dividend policy based on cash flows, ditching the conservatism that has defined distributions for years. Its board intends to declare dividends at 100% of its share capital for 2024 and the next couple of years.

Demand for real estate in Dubai

The outlook for the UAE property segment is positive, according to Neetika Gupta, vice president and head of research at Ubhar Capital SAOC. “There is a solid pipeline of new launches offering growth potential, off-plan sales remain consistent, and the demand backdrop is healthy,” she said. 

The rally in Emaar — the heaviest weighted stock on the Dubai Financial Market General Index — drove the benchmark to the highest level since September 2014. The main gauge has rallied 25% this year, far outperforming the MSCI Emerging Markets Index’s 7% gains. It’s also the best performer among Gulf benchmarks in 2024, led by the advance in Emaar and its subsidiary Emaar Development PJSC.

Demand for real estate in Dubai has been booming post-pandemic, buoyed by liberal visa policies and low taxes that have attracted millionaires and investments. 

Home prices have surged more than 60% since 2020. The luxury end of the emirate’s real estate market — including waterfront villas on the city’s man-made palm-shaped islands — has benefited from an influx of wealthy investors. Meanwhile, rents have also surged with home leases climbing 18% in the year through November.

“Dubai is firing on all cylinders in terms of immigration, tourism, and property prices,” says Hasnain Malik, head of equity and investment strategy research at Tellimer in Dubai. However, he sees increasing affordability risks and said valuations look stretched relative to the historical average.

Emaar is expected to report end-of-year profit of about 11.5 billion dirhams ($3.1 billion), according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with profit of about 4 billion dirhams in 2021, highlighting the company’s booming business. Emaar’s profit in 2025 is likely to hit 13 billion dirhams as many developments under construction are completed, according to analyst estimates.

There’s optimism “about aligning future dividend policy to cash flow, which may peak in 2027-28,” said Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst Edmond Christou.