Tariff bills across U.S. states mount as affordability and Trump head for midterm elections showdown

New analysis of U.S. Census data shows that states across the U.S. where key midterm elections will take place this year paid over $134 billion in tariffs in the period since President Donald Trump began implementing widespread trade duties in March 2025 through last November. In all, the U.S. Census data compiled by Trade Partnership Worldwide showed a total of $199 billion in tariffs paid by states during that time period.

Trump has called affordability a “Democratic hoax,” and in recent testimony before Congress, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the tariffs “do not cause inflation.”

But Trump’s tariffs and affordability are expected to be factors in the upcoming midterm election cycle. Recent CNBC survey data from the American consumer and pricing data show that the affordability issues are real and many voters have soured on the economy. A January poll from The New York Times and Siena University found that 54% of voters oppose Trump’s tariffs. Some members of the GOP are starting to break with their leaders over the tariffs issue, joining Democrats on Tuesday in a vote to defeat a rule that would have prohibited the House from challenging tariffs issued by Trump. The House is expected to vote Wednesday on a measure to overturn Trump’s tariffs on Canada introduced by Rep. Gregory Meeks, D-N.Y.

“Americans struggling with affordability rightly blame tariffs for higher prices on many everyday purchases,” said Dan Anthony, executive director of the We Pay the Tariffs small business coalition and president of Trade Partnership Worldwide. “The president could eliminate tens of billions in taxes in the states that will determine the 2026 elections. He just doesn’t want to,” Anthony said.