IMF Lowers Global Growth Forecast, Warns of Increasing Risks

The International Monetary Fund lowered its global growth forecast for next year and warned of accelerating risks from wars to trade protectionism, even as it credited central banks for taming inflation without sending nations into recession.

Global output will expand 3.2%, 0.1 percentage point slower than a July estimate, the IMF said in an update of its World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday. It left the projection for this year unchanged at 3.2%. Inflation will slow to 4.3% next year from 5.8% in 2024.

The fund has been cautioning for a couple of years that the world economy is likely to expand at its current mediocre level in the medium term — too little to give nations the resources they need to reduce poverty and confront climate change.

“The risks are building up to the downside, and there is a growing uncertainty in the global economy,” Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in a briefing.

“There is geopolitical risk, with the potential for escalation of regional conflicts,” that could affect commodity markets, he said. “There is a rise of protectionism, protectionist policies, disruptions in trade that could also affect global activity.”

While the outlook doesn’t explicitly mention the US election, the contest in two weeks looms over annual meetings that will see finance ministers and central bankers from almost 200 nations gather at the IMF and World Bank headquarters in Washington, just three blocks from the White House.

A Bloomberg Economics analysis earlier this year found that Donald Trump’s vow to impose 60% tariffs on imports from China and 10% duties on those from the rest of the world would likely spur inflation and pressure the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

Global public debt

The IMF last week flagged concern about global public debt, which is expected to reach $100 trillion, or 93% of world gross domestic product, by the end of this year. The surge is driven by the US and China. 

The fund is urging governments to make tough decisions to stabilize borrowing. With little political appetite to cut spending amid pressures to fund cleaner energy, support aging populations and bolster security, the “risks to the debt outlook are heavily tilted to the upside,” the IMF said.

In terms of next year’s outlook, the IMF forecast for the euro area was downgraded to 1.2%, 0.3% lower than in July, due to persistent weakness in manufacturing in Germany and Italy. 

The projection for Mexico was cut for this year by the most among major economies, as well as for next year, based on the impact of monetary policy tightening. China’s growth outlook for this year was cut to 4.8% from 5% previously on weakness in the real estate sector and low consumer confidence, with the 2025 forecast maintained at 4.5%.

The fund boosted its estimate for the US this year to 2.8% and 2.2% next year on stronger consumption.

The IMF applauded central banks for slowing inflation without tipping economies into recession, which Gourinchas called “a major accomplishment” based on expectations for the necessary steps expected a couple of years ago to achieve disinflation.

Still, the world faces risks from monetary policy hitting growth more than intended, worsening sovereign debt pressures in emerging and developing economies, and renewed spikes in food and energy prices due to climate shocks, war and geopolitical tensions, the IMF said.